Credit Card ’s Talk

There can?t be many traders who haven?t at least considered the idea of telling the boss what they think of him, throwing it all in and going off to trade the stock market for a living. It?s a big risk financially, and that uncertainty is what stops most from jumping ship. Is it really possible to trade for a living?

The Dream

You know how it is, you?re sitting in a traffic jam at some unearthly hour of a particularly wet and miserable morning, on the way to the same office you have sat in for too long to remember, and you?re thinking - there must be a better way ? life shouldn?t have to be like this.

Your mind starts to wander and you find yourself thinking back to that stock you bought only a week ago, and how it skyrocketed giving you enough profit to takes the kids to Disneyland in the summer, and you begin to consider if you couldn?t make a fulltime living at this trading game. The advantages are certainly tempting; no more pointless meetings with the manager, hours to suit, holidays whenever you feel like it, and with your home-office - no more traffic jams.

Heck, come to that you could even make home anywhere you want it to be! By the time the traffic starts moving again. you?re busily calculating how much cash you could make if all your trades went like that last one - you?re almost ready to write your notice letter there and then!

The Bad News

Time for a reality check. Certainly all of the above benefits are there to be enjoyed, but it?s a huge step from full time employee to full time trader. Are you really ready to give up that monthly pay-check just yet? Can you really cope not knowing how much money you?re going to make month to month? Are you prepared for the months when you actually lose money instead of make it? There are many things to consider before taking the leap of faith.

Considerations

Before you even think about trading for a living you have to know how much money you need to live on, that is, how much cash do you need to generate every month in order to survive. As a financially minded person you already have good home accounts, or are at the very least vaguely aware of where the money goes. So take the annual figure (monthly is no good, you need to account for annual recurring items like insurance premiums, car servicing, and vacations), add 50% and divide by 12. Why add 50%? Because there will always be unexpected expenses, and as traders we are always prepared to expect the unexpected.

Now you know how much money you need each month, you can look at your savings and work out how much buffer money you have, that is, how long you could survive without earning anything at all. You can?t expect to be an instantly profitable trader, and even the best and most experienced have periods of drawdown, so you need to be ready for the worst. If you can?t live for at least six months from your savings then you are probably under capitalised and are not ready to give up that pay-check just yet.

An important but often overlooked aspect of under capitalisation is the effect it will have on your trading; if you are trading because you need the money, then you are trading scared and you?re almost certainly going to lose. You cannot distance yourself from the money-aspect of the trade if you are relying on the money.

Living expenses are only one part of the financial equation. Next you must consider how much trading capital you need. This is the money actually facilitate trading, in other words your account balance for trading margin, and the money you will be spending on data feeds, software, and internet access. You must account for this separately, you cannot start eating into your daily living expenses money just because you took a bad trade and need some more margin.

The amount of trading capital you require will depend very much on your trading style. To day trade the US Stock Markets for example, you must have at least $25,000 in your account, so budget for $30,000 to allow for positions moving against you (if you fall below the $25k minimum even briefly, your account can be frozen for up to three months). If you are holding positions overnight you may manage with a lower balance but bear in mind your buying power and consequently returns will be reduced.

If all this is starting to sound expensive, well it is. There?s no two ways about it, you simply cannot survive long term as a trader if you are under funded.

This article will be concluded in part two.

About The Author

Geoff Turnbull is a full time day trader, and a contributor to http://www.stock-trading-world.com

Mutual funds by definition are a mixed bag of stocks, bonds and a little cash. Their price per share is the NAV, Net Asset Value of the total amount of money in the mutual fund divided by the number of shares. They seek to be fully invested at all times.

The fund manager determines which stocks and bonds to buy and sell in order to give the greatest return to his shareholders. He is considered to be an expert in choosing stocks for appreciation of value and should be expected to give a better than average return. That’s why he draws down a six-figure income.

You are encouraged to pick a fund that has your goal in mind. Is it considered conservative, speculative, income oriented, growth or some other category? Wouldn’t you say one of the principle reasons was to have the greatest return on your money? Do you want an average return or do you want an above average return?

What is average? There is an index which you hear about on the news every day called the S&P500. Because it is composed of 500 different stocks it is broadly representative of the market as a whole and therefore called a market average or index. You certainly would want a fund that is doing better than average.

You are encouraged to read the prospectus. Did you realize that the day it is printed much of the information in it is over a year old? It is written for the regulators in Washington, not for investors. It is worthless. Throw it away.

There are load funds that charge a commission and no-load funds that do not charge commission. There is no proof that paying a commission will provide you with a better return. Buy your no-load funds direct from the fund or through a discount broker.

You are told to find a good fund manager. Various money magazines list them. Investor’s Business Daily does a feature story on different fund managers several times each week. Check to see if his fund is outperforming the S&P during the last 12 months. There are very few fund managers who have a consistent record and even the best of them gets cold once in a while and has a losing streak. You want your money returning at maximum at all times so you can’t stay with one manager when he is running cold. Change funds.

One of the Wall Street myths is that you should put your money into a good fund and let it stay there for years. This is promoted because mutual fund managers are compensated by the amount of money they have in the fund and not for performance of the fund.

So how do you pick a fund? Very simple. It must outperform the S&P500 Index. Any mutual fund manager who cannot beat a market average should not be holding your money. Check out your funds today.

Al Thomas’ book, If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It! has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

The first chart shows the daily SPX (black line and right scale) and the NYSE Oscillator (NYMO) 50-day MA (blue line and left scale). Previous patterns indicate when the NYMO 50-day MA falls below negative 20, then a bottom will be in place and SPX will be in position for a sustainable rally. Currently, the NYMO 50-day MA is negative 15 1/2 and the daily NYMO is negative 15. So, the daily NYMO will have to stay below negative 15 1/2 for sufficient time and levels to bring the NYMO 50-day MA below negative 20.

The vertical line in the first chart shows April 2005 technical indicators are in somewhat similiar positions compared to current indicators. In March and April 2005, SPX fell from the high at 1,229 to the low at 1,136, from early-March to late-April, before starting the uptrend. Over the current downtrend, SPX fell from the high at 1,326 in early-May to a low at 1,235 last week. The similarities indicate SPX could trade between 1,230 and 1,260 for one to three weeks and then the NYMO 50-day MA may be in position for a SPX bottom. Also, the NYSI (below price chart) may fall into position for a SPX rally.

The second chart is an SPX monthly chart that shows the monthly middle Bollinger Band, currently 1,228 1/2, has held throughout the recent cyclical bull market. Consequently, a fall below that level may indicate a greater fall and the start of a cyclical bear market. Below the price chart is the monthly MACD, which gave a bearish crossover last week. However, the crossover is valid only if it closes the month bearish. Above the price chart is the monthly Money Flow, which remains positive, although has deteriorated, which may indicate the tail-end of the cyclical bull market.

It seems most likely SPX will hold the monthly middle Bollinger Band and begin a summer rally in June. Currently, SPX is in the second longest period in history without at least a 9% correction (1,206 is a 9% decline from 1,326). Also, the current cyclical bull market, within the structural bear market that began in 2000, is of above average length. However, it seems, a 9% or more correction and the end of the cyclical bull market will more likely take place at another time, perhaps this fall or in the first half of 2007.

Free charts available at PeakTrader.com Forum Index Market Forecast section.

Arthur Albert Eckart is the founder and owner of PeakTrader. Arthur has worked for commercial banks, e.g. Wells Fargo, Banc One, and First Commerce Technologies, during the 1980s and 1990s. He has also worked for Janus Funds from 1999-00. Arthur Eckart has a BA & MA in Economics from the University of Colorado. He has worked on options portfolio optimization since 1998.

Mr Eckart has developed a comprehensive trading methodology using economics, portfolio optimization, and technical analysis to maximize return and minimize risk at the same time and over time. This methodology has resulted in excellent returns with low risk over the past four years.

Under Armour, Inc. (UAI) debuted on November 18, 2005 at $31. The maker of branded performance clothing is growing its brand recognition via the use of hip brand promotion that is trying to wrestle away interest from the traditional buyers of Nike (NKE).

Under Armour has targeted the youth and athletic market where it competing with the established and strong Nike brand. Under Armour has a projected five-year annual earnings growth of 22.50% versus 14% for Nike. But on the valuation side, Under Armour is discounting in significant premium growth over that of Nike. Under Armour is trading at 46.19x its FY07 and a PEG of 2.75 versus 14.27x and a PEG of 1.06 for Nike. Clearly, Under Armour will need to perform to its lofty expectations going forward; otherwise, the stock will sell off. Nike is a superior value play.

Vonage Holdings Corp. (NYSE/VG) debuted on Wednesday at $17, the mid-point of its estimated IPO pricing range of $16-$18. The provider of Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) is an early entrant into the rapidly growing area of VoIP and presently has about 1.6 million subscribers but the company has yet to turn a profit. VoIP uses a broadband connection to make phone calls.

High advertising costs to acquire customers have hindered margins. Vonage is the current leader due to its early entry into the VoIP business but I see the company facing a difficult uphill climb as intense competition surfaces from major cable companies and the Skype service from eBay (EBAY).

The reality is Vonage has to spend extraordinary money on acquiring customers whereas for cable companies and eBay, there is already a significant customer base to market to. Vonage will soon realize this.

Hedge fund manager and the host of the hugely popular ?Mad Money? show on CNBC said Vonage is a ?piece of junk,? which I have to concur with. And with Vonage currently trading down at $13, the market may also view Vonage as over hype and not enough substance.

George Leong is the founder of Investornomics.com (http://www.investornomics.com) - a provider of independent stock and option trading commentary. He has a degree in finance/economics and offers over 15 years of research experience in investing and trading.

The stock market often closes a week in the middle of a perceived primary-trend range. SPX closed at about 1,234 Fri, which is between a multi-year Fibonacci level at 1,253 (i.e. 38.2% retracement level from the peak in 2000 to the trough in 2002) and the 20 day MA at 1,212 (which was general support over a recent rally).

It’s possible, SPX can rally to 1,253 short-term. However, longer-term (perhaps in Aug and Sep), SPX seems destined to fall sharply. A Goldilocks economy (of neither too hot nor too cold) is priced-into the stock market, and if any future economic data show either output growth has slowed more than expected or inflation has risen more than expected, then massive selling may take place.

There are several intermediate-term technical indicators that make me cautious. VIX (S&P 500 Volatility Index) shows an extreme level of complacency. VIX fell below 10 last week, to a 12-year low. Consequently, the SPX to VIX ratio hit an all-time high last week. Moreover, both the Transport and Utility Indices to VIX ratios have rocketed at parabolic rates recently, to over 50% beyond previous year’s highs. Also, a ratio of large cap to small cap stocks (e.g. S&P 100 to Russell 2,000) is near a multi-decade low, which indicates big institutions, who tend to buy large cap stocks, are not convinced of the rally. Moreover, the SPX to U.S. Dollar ratio is near a historically high level. There’s typically an inverse relationship between the U.S. stock market and the U.S. dollar, because a weaker dollar spurs export growth, which is normally bullish for the stock market. The high ratio indicates it’s more likely the stock market will fall, since the dollar depreciation has stabilized for over six months, at far lower levels than a few years ago, and then risen somewhat recently.

SPX has open gaps at 1,221, 1,174, 1,143, and 1,138. Nasdaq also has several open gaps, including one at 1,905, which is currently 275 points lower. The stock market has been a market of deep rises and deep falls. For example, just over the past 13 months, Nasdaq fell 305 points (in two months), then rose 440 points (in four months), then fell 300 points (in four months), and then rose 300 points (in three months). Moreover, VXN (a Nasdaq volatility index) rose only six to nine points over the two deep falls, and declined from 28 to 12 (an all-time low), over the past 13 months, which made it a particularly unforgiving short-term trading market.

Economic reports next week are: Mon: Existing Home Sales, Tue: Consumer Confidence, Wed: Durable Goods Orders, New Home Sales, and Fed’s Beige Book, Thu: Unemployment Claims, Fri: GDP and GDP Price Deflator, Employment Cost Index, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, and Chicago PMI.

Notable earnings next week include:

Mon: AXP TXN XRX PBI CEGE CD

Tue: AMZN DD SEBL WWY BIIB IMCL X N VLO LMT BDK GLW SUNW SE SWY MDG RFMD MCHP SSTI NANX

Wed: BA AHC COP CSX CL SBUX K KMG MSO NEM CHIR OSIP CRA FON HMC HCA

Thu: BMY GSK ELN GP XOM APA KLAC SYMC XMSR WMI BR RTN AET PD AU ABX KGC PAAS ZEUS GR WEN JNS DCX

Fri: CHV BHI AEP ADM BWNG

Large caps may outperform small caps over the next few months, i.e. small caps may fall greater than large caps. So, IWM (Russell 2000) and SPX (S&P 500) puts may be better than QQQQ (Nasdaq 100) and OEX (S&P 100) puts. With volatility levels at all-time or multi-decade lows, the steep decline in volatility, since the cyclical bull market began in Oct 2002, may shift into an uptrend. So, market conditions may improve for short-term traders, including daytraders.

Arthur Albert Eckart is the founder and owner of PeakTrader. Arthur has worked for commercial banks, e.g. Wells Fargo, Banc One, and First Commerce Technologies, during the 1980s and 1990s. He has also worked for Janus Funds from 1999-00. Arthur Eckart has a BA & MA in Economics from the University of Colorado. He has worked on options portfolio optimization since 1998.

Mr Eckart has developed a comprehensive trading methodology using economics, portfolio optimization, and technical analysis to maximize return and minimize risk at the same time. This methodology has resulted in excellent returns with low risk over the past three years.

With all the bad news that has been dumped upon the economy for some reason the stock market is going up. Why?

The SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) has just set up new guidelines for core earnings. No more proforma computations. You know what proforma means - the company CEO or Treasurer waves his magic wand and says this is what I expect to appear as soon as I let the genii out of the bottle. And pigs can fly. These imaginary numbers may give his company a Price/Earnings ration of 20 which is pretty good by today’s standards.

Now those mean guys in Washington have said you must reevaluate your earnings but this time figure in your stock options, pension costs and any restructuring charges. Holy Cow, that makes the P/E ratio 37. And that ain’t no bargain when you are buying stock. The 100 year average has run about a 14 P/E. If the company has not been paying any dividends then this is a stock that must be suspect for any long term holding.

Because of these new guidelines the entire S&P Index P/E has gone from a 33 to 49. That is much better than it was in January 2002 when it reached 69. This number makes the entire market overvalued and still leaves me with the question of how can the market advance using these high P/Es?

There are a couple of answers and neither may be the right one.

The market has become severely oversold. The bear people have been riding it down until the news media finally recognized we have a long-term bear market. There have become too many traders who think there is no bottom and are willing to sell anything and everything. Enter the trading bargain hunters. It will now be the bears turn to be punished.

It takes money to put the market up. Where is that coming from? Our white knight, Sir Greenspan, has come in with his bags of money this past week. Look past our borders and you will see stock exchanges in every major country in the world that look sicker than ours. Foreign investors want a new home for their money and it seems the U.S. market looks darn good. As that money has started buying you may begin to see pension plan and mutual fund managers coming into the market.

The talking heads on TV and radio will give many other reasons that can be fueling the market advance and they may also be correct. Our market may be overvalued as we see it, but to others it looks like a bargain. Money is always looking for the greatest return and with wire transfers billions of dollars can and does move in a matter of hours. Oversold to the foreign market traders means underbought. It seems they have put on their buying clothes and want a piece of the action as our market is headed up - at least for a while.

(c) 2005

Al Thomas’ best selling book, If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It! has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter to receive his market letter for 3 months at www.mutualfundmagic.com to discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Money creation in the stock market is made from CONCENTRATION. That’s right. Trading the very best stocks at the right time with enough capital to make a big difference.

You must go from wealth CREATION to wealth maintenance in this game. Unless you plan on investing for the next 25 years and building wealth slowly.. this is my plan of how you can make millions in the stock market:

In Darvas’s book How I Made $2 Million…

How many looked at his position sizing? In his early trades Darvas only trade 1 or 2 stocks at any one time on MARGIN! Only when he got up to over $500,000 did he start diversifying a little. Most people overlook these facts.

MY Momentum Stock PLAN:

CONCENTRATION BUILDS WEALTH
DIVERSIFICATION MAINTAINS WEALTH

END GOAL:

$2 MILLION ACCOUNT MAKING 20-30% P.A

Start with:
$50,000
Trade 2 stocks with half capital in each.

RISK Per TRADE = 5%

When at $100,000 Trade 3 stocks with 1/3
capital in each.

Risk Per Trade = 3%

When at:

$500,000 Trade 5 stocks with 1/5 capital:

Risk Per Trade = 2%

When at $2 Million Trade 8 stocks with 1/8 capital:

Risk Per Trade = 1.25%

You first have to create wealth in order to maintain it. Whilst trading only two stocks at a time may be deemed to ?risky? by the ?professionals? you must be very selective on the stocks you trade. Quality beats quantity. Especially when you concentrate so much.

This is the only way a small account can break into the big time. You must not only focus your efforts in the early stages but you must also only trade the top 0.1% of stocks in the market and get your timing SPOT ON.

Mark Crisp

A Successful Momentum Stock Trader of Over 10 Years.

No, this is not a symbol for some Latin number. The Wall Street mavens talk about this market timing device as if they knew how to use it to determine which way the stock market is going ? up or down. It is pretty obvious that brokers, analysts and financial planners have not learned the language.

What does it mean and can it be used to predict market moves? The VIX is actually a measure of volatility for those who buy and sell stock options think about the market. To make it simple you can find it displayed as a chart on the Internet at www.cboe.com. It measures the volatility of the market calculated by taking a weighted moving average of the implied volatility from eight puts and calls on the S&P 100 index. I hope I didn?t lose you here. Stay with me a moment and I?ll try to make it simple.

Every trader is looking for the Holy Grail indicator and recently the VIX seems to be it. Of course, like all indicators it will work until too many use it and then it will fail taking with it the spoils of the market ? their life savings.

It seems relatively simple to use and therefore attracts novices as well as professionals. When the indicator goes below 30 it would be a time to be short the general market such as the DOW, the S&P or the Nasdaq. When the numbers go above 45, which is supposed to show panic of investors, it is a time to buy. It is an inverse indicator. The lower the number the more complacency of the little investor ? SELL; the higher the number the greater panic ? BUY. Maybe it has become too simple because there is a sing/song that goes ?When VIX is high it?s time to buy, when VIX is low its time to go?.

If it were only that simple. Every timing device has its shortcomings. With the VIX the numbers can remain in excessive high and low levels for prolonged periods and therefore cause the trader to experience losses before the desired market movement occurs. Like all other timing methods it is best when combined with other signals such as the 50-day moving average, P/E ratios and other devices.

Having been a trader for many years I can assure there is no Holy Grail indicator. The VIX is but one letter in the alphabet of market language. You cannot be successful with one syllable. You must take the time to learn the entire vocabulary.

Al Thomas’ book, If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It! has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

1-888-345-7870; al@mutualfundstrategy.com