Credit Card ’s Talk

As I said in Part I everyone in the insane asylum looks normal, but at least the doctors are sane. Unfortunately, in the insane asylum known as the stock market all the doctors (brokers) are also insane.

The doctors in the insane asylum went to medical school to learn how to treat the patients so the could get well. On Wall Street you go to the doctor (broker) who is supposed to help you become financially well, maybe wealthy. Almost none of these Wall Street experts ever learned their profession. They have all been taught the three great prescriptions that make no sense at all: Do Your Research, Buy and Hold and Dollar Cost Averaging. This is what the brokerage houses teach.

As I said previously research is worthless, as it will not tell you if a stock is going to go up. Buy and Hold is taught the wrong way. It is OK to Buy and Hold as long as the stock is going up, but not when it goes down. No broker is taught how to protect a customer’s money.

When I was a floor trader I learned in a hurry not to hold on to something that was losing money. The very simple prescription for this is called a Stop Loss Order. Brokers hate them and will discourage you from entering them. Why? Because it means he will have to watch your account because if a stop order is not properly and timely executed he must pay it out of his pocket.

Brokerage houses do not teach brokers how to use this simple method to protect capital. The house does not want to become known that it will sell a company’s stock when it turns weak. The brokerage company makes more in good will from the poor performing company than they do in commissions from you because if they ever encourage selling it means they will not get a chance to handle an Initial Public Offering (IPO) for that company. Suppose they did have a stop protection policy for customers and they then had an IPO that came out at $30 per share, but instead of going up it went down. The customers would not lose more than $3 or $4 per share because of their protective stops, but the house would then be stuck with all the unsold stock. It is OK for you to have this money-losing dog, but they sure don’t want it in their inventory. You can see how logical this is, but you won’t hear it from a broker. Stop orders are not insane.

The insane conventional wisdom that both brokers and customers have been taught cannot remain once it is exposed to truth.

You must take the initiative with the stocks you own to protect yourself from loss of capital. If your broker argues with you there is one solution - fire him and find a good broker who will protect your money. Just because he has learned an insane system doesn’t mean you have to be nuts too.

Al Thomas’ book, If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It! has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

al@mutualfundstrategy.com; 1-888-345-7870

Having lived aboard a sailboat for 2 years I was stricken when I saw the movie ?PERFECT STORM?. I know these are things you want to avoid at all costs. Even little storms can play havoc with your life style on a boat.

From a world view it looks like we are headed into a perfect storm of world macroeconomics. That means every one in the world is going to be impacted economically by the developing global economics. The more economically developed the country the worse they will be affected. Those third-world countries just working their way to becoming second-world countries can easily be set back 30 to 50 years.

What am I talking about?

People need food and shelter and after they have the basic necessities they will buy nonessentials such as entertainment and toys (boats, cars, jewelry, bigger houses, second homes, etc.). These are all purchased because the person has extra units of credit called money with which to buy the extras. In order the get that extra money he has to have a steady job. World wide there is excess productive capacity. Approximately 25% of productive machinery is idle; we are working at about 75% of capacity where the normal rate of production is between 87% and 92%. That means that many who were at those machines are now sitting at home wondering not about a new toy to buy, but how to make the next mortgage payment.

Everything looks smooth. The waters are calm and the breeze is at our back. When that perfect storm was forming in the Atlantic Ocean there did not seem to be any danger, but the meteorologists watching their satellites and computers could see that all was not well and a terrible storm was forming. They realized when it hit that ships would be at high risk.

There are meteorologists of the stock market. They are a combination of technical and fundamental analysts and it is their job to predict the stock market weather. Like weathermen the job of prediction is not easy nor is it an exact science, Many get it wrong, Today the news of the stock market and the economy is dominated by the fundamentalists who see excellent weather and tranquil seas. Many technicians see it otherwise. They are predicting that there are formations that could produce a perfect storm that will wipe out many portfolios.

Historically the timing of fundamentalist (those who follow the reports of company profits and government statistics) usually lags while the prediction of technical analysts (those who follow chart patterns and historical data) has been much more accurate.

The key to the stock market is timing. The investor wants to own stocks and mutual funds while the market is advancing and to be in cash while the market is declining.

Today the fundamentalist weathermen say buy while many technician weathermen are recommending cash. In the next few months we will see if the weather is calm or stormy.

Al Thomas’ book, If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It! has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005