Greed – The Ugly Duckling of Investing

Ah, yes, that evil five letter word can get one into a some hot water when it comes to investing in the stock market now can?t it? I?m sure we?ve all been there, at one time or another, where the evil has overcome and we think; hold on for a just a little bit longer and I can make even more money than I could if I sold right now. Greed can be defined as an excessive desire to acquire or possess more than what one needs or deserves, especially with respect to material wealth. Yes, that sounds just about right, certainly relates to stock market investing now doesn?t it?

Keeping Greed out of Your Investing

We all have our own investment strategies, I?m not here to tell you what works best and what sucks wind, but one thing I do know, if your investing strategy involves greed you will probably ?lose? more often than you ?win?. It?s certainly not always an easy thing, to keep greed out of your investments, especially when you?re in a stock that?s on a nice uphill ride. Any prudent investment approach should contain some form of an exit strategy, simply put how you plan on getting out of (selling) the stock you hold. This would be one way to avoid greed, have a set price at which you intend on selling the stock, walk away with the money in your pocket and move on to the next investment. Not always as easy as it sounds though is it? Prior to buying into a stock you should have some sort of idea at what price you would like to sell it, hopefully you don?t have to hold it for 10 years in order for it to reach that price. Sometimes you buy into it and if you timed it just right, you start to see the price go up sooner rather than later. When you start counting the dollars you are making seems to be when the exit strategy flies out the window and greed comes creeping in. I mean, gee, who knew when you bought it that the stock was going to rise so high, so fast, why sell now when you could make so much more money? It would be downright silly to get out now when you could clearly make much more cash if you held on to it. Somewhere deep within your being, there should be something rejecting this argument, and reminding you of your exit strategy and how you?ve gone past the price you told yourself you were going to be out of that stock and onto the next one.

Take your profits when you can

Discipline is a big factor when investing in the stock market. By employing some self-discipline you can keep your head about your initial investment strategy and keep greed from banging down the door. If the stock you invested in has made a nice move, and you have made the money you hoped to make off of it, then get out of it while the getting is good. If it seems as though the price is going to continue to increase, then why not take out your original investment plus a small profit (if possible) and leave the rest. At least you wouldn?t be losing any money by taking your profits when they are presented to you. You could have the best of both worlds if you chose to employ this strategy, you made your money (or at least didn?t lose any) and if the stock goes to the moon you?ll be laughing all the way to the bank, or at least to your next investment. The other option, let greed take the wheel, you could make way more money if you don?t take any profits and let the whole thing ride up the hill. Sure, you could stand to make a lot more off of your investments and I?m sure many people do, but the problem with this approach, where is the top? And when it reaches the top is it going to stay there for a while or come crashing down at record speed? What if it reaches this peak while you?re on vacation, or sick and can?t get to your computer to make the all important trade? It?s amazing how fast all those profits can disappear and you are no further ahead then when you first invested in the stock.

The main point to all this? Greed has a home and a mother, just like the ugly duckling, just perhaps not in stock market investing. Obviously, investment strategies vary from person to person, and if you find one that works, and greed is a big factor, well, kudos to you, personally, I?ve never gained off my greediness, it?s always hurt me more than helped me. Anyways, now back to my point. No one can predict with 100% certainty (no one I?ve ever heard of anyways) what is going to happen with a particular stock or the stock market in general. If you are able to keep your head about your investments and keep greed out, you could stand to make some tidy profits so that you can keep investing, employing your investment strategy and hopefully making some decent money at the whole thing.

*Any information contained in this article should not be construed as investment advice, simply the thoughts and opinions of the author.*

Jennifer Mycock & Branden Moskwa of Tradeopolis.com

Tradeopolis.com, your stock market trading and stock investing resource, with access to articles on Stock market trading and stock investing. Penny stocks to mutual fund investing, tips and secrets and all the latest hot press releases.

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The world of trading and investment can be as frustrating as it can be rewarding! You need to be prepared…

Firstly, decide if you are a trader or an investor.

An investor is someone who enters the stock market inadvertently – usually via their superannuation policies. A trader is someone who makes a decision to buy and sell shares via the stock market. This can be done online or by using the services of a stock broker.

If you decide to become a trader – to win – you must have a survival strategy…

You need to study the market yourself – not just rely on ‘reading the news’, or listening to others advice and tips.

Take advantage of technology – computers, software, electronic data – all at your finger tips. Seek out charting software and appropriate internet sites – they are plentiful.

Ensure that you ‘manage’ your money and keep some in reserve.

Have the ability to quickly identify failures as well as successes.

Stock Market trading appeals to those who are a little adventurous – rather than just placing their capital into bricks and mortar.

But – be mindful that portfolio values are less stable than real estate as they are continually moving up and down.

However – investing in the Stock Market means that you are putting your money to work – be aware, and enjoy the gains!

Gay Redmile is the webmaster of several finance and investment sites. Having been a trader for most of her adult life – she understands the importance of undertaking research and knowing the market. For further important information visit her site at http://www.thestocktradingsite.com or if commodity trading interests you check out http://www.commoditytrading.com.

Sometimes you just have to take a deep breadth. And though I sometimes avoid information for fear of it influencing me adversely [journalists who know NOTHING talking up a situation, today I read the FT first thing.

Yesterday’s drops could be the start of a big fall. But i’m gambling it’s not. After the fear of today has subsided, I expect a rally. But I also expect a lot of volatility in the coming weeks / months [until something significant causes balance and so I expect to make short bursts of quick profits.

From watching the charts, I can see that many investors have the same idea. There’s a lot of buying going on amongst the selling.

But like I said yesterday, things are looking cheap from a certain perspective. So even if I buy today and we’re not at the bottom of the trough, I am pretty confident that I am buying at a low enough price that will eaily be surpassed shortly.

Unless I’ve got it all wrong. Which puts me in the same club as many other big names. Nobody knows anything.

I have what I call a market-stall approach. The stocks for me are just like bananas. What are they worth today? How much can I sell them for later? How many do I buy? How much working capital am I risking? How perishable are they?

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When it comes to mutual funds, there is a lot more to success than just finding a good one. Sad investment stories like the following are all too common. I hope my sharing it with you will help you avoid making the same devastating financial mistake one of my former clients made.

This story begins during the height of the investment madness in 2000, just prior to the bear market. I had been managing an IRA account for Bob for around six years, with a better than average record of success. So I was surprised when Bob sheepishly called in July, 2000 to let me know he was transferring his IRA account, which had done particularly well during our latest Buy cycle going into the year 2000.

However, his tax preparer, a long time personal friend of Bob’s wife?s, was now also offering investment services, having recently received his Registered Representative?s license.

Fast forward to the end of September. It had become increasingly clear to me that the Bull market had run its course. So, in accordance with the Sell signal from our trend tracking methodology, we sold all of our mutual fund positions on October 13, 2000 and went 100% into money market. (See my article ?How we eluded the Bear in 2000? at http://www.successful-investment.com/articles12.htm). From our safe haven we watched the market crash and burn, causing most other investors to sustain double digit losses eventually reaching as high as 50 – 60% of their assets.

In 2002 Bob unexpectedly stopped by my office. As it turned out, things had not gone well at all with his IRA investments. As most advisors would have done, his tax preparer/advisor had quickly moved all of Bob?s assets into a variety of ?load funds.?

Of course, being newly licensed he was clueless (as were many licensed advisors) as to market behavior or analysis of any kind. The end result was that Bob?s portfolio lost in excess of 50% over the next 2 years. (Not to gloat, but my clients’ losses in the same period were non-existent.)

Unfortunately, the degree of loss Bob sustained was experienced by many investors who did not follow a disciplined and methodical approach.

What I find particularly distasteful is that Bob’s tax preparer misused his position of trust. He made financial decisions that he was not qualified to make, though his license implied that he did know enough to make them. So now we know what a piece of paper is worth.

This is no different than letting a newly graduated medical student with a fresh MD behind his name perform heart surgery. Or, hiring a new MBA grad to Chief Financial Officer of a Fortune 500 company. Yet the financial services industry allows someone to get a license (after a fairly short course) and to immediately start making incredibly important and far reaching financial decisions for anyone he or she can sell their service to.

This is a worrisome trend in this industry. A CPA friend confirmed that he has been approached many times by firms wanting him to offer investment services.

Why? It?s easy money! Accountants and tax professionals have a great business base. They are in a unique position of trust, because of the information their clients disclose to them. Whether they are employed by a company or they maintain an individual practice, there is probably no other person (other than your spouse) who knows as many intimate details of your financial life as your accountant/tax preparer.

To abuse this trust for personal gain?no matter how noble the motive may appear?is a total conflict of interest and a huge betrayal.

The bear market of 2000 has shown that investing must be a disciplined endeavor. Even most professionals have failed to recognize this. What busy accountant, in the middle of tax season, can put the necessary time and attention to a volatile investment market that may require action at a moment’s notice?

As for Bob, he?s still with his accountant, and in the same investments that brought his portfolio down. He?s hoping for a miracle recovery. As of this writing, the stock market is engaged in something of an upswing and Bob, I’m sure, is getting his hopes up that he will recover some of his losses. However, I shudder to think that this rally may come to an end and the bear market resumes. Where will Bob be then?

At 58 years old Bob is still playing Russian roulette with his retirement. He’s apparently unable to make a decision to move to someone who has the ability to make sense of market trends and the discipline to follow the signals they communicate. This is a decision that will have a profound affect on his financial future?and will determine whether his story has a happy or sad ending.

About The Author

Ulli Niemann is an investment advisor and has been writing about objective, methodical approaches to investing for over 10 years. He eluded the bear market of 2000 and has helped countless of people make better investment decisions. To find out more about his approach and his FREE Newsletter, please visit: www.successful-investment.com; ulli@successful-investment.com

Fading the gap. Earnings runs. Moving average cross over’s. Support and resistance. I could go on an on about all the ?tools? a good ?trader? uses to make a trade. In one form or another we have employed each and every one of them, and for the most part, if done right, they work. But, there is one issue that will always make you shake your head in wonder. What?s that? ?Why didn?t I hold??

One time we watched EBAY get to 104 dollars a share. Well, we went long EBAY on 8/11/04 at 76.30. We held it for a pretty long time, and sold a portion on 9/2/04, at 89.53. We had picked up $13 a share, and yes indeed we were proud of ourselves. Yet, it went over 104. Suddenly selling it at 89.53, looked pretty silly didn?t it? Indeed.

One could easily ask ?why on earth did you sell it?? One could easily answer, ?did you ?know? it was going to go to 100?? Do you see the point? There are indeed investments that you are going to make from time to time, when you will take your profit, feel like a king, and then feel like a fool because the stock keeps going higher. But, we have a short memory in this country. This is the same type of thinking that saw tens of thousands of investors get crushed in 200 ? 2003. They all ?knew? their stocks were going higher. They held onto them. They are still licking their wounds.

There is NO answer to this problem folks. Cocky talking head fund managers wrote all sorts of catchy books about ?let your runners run, and cut your losers?. Peter Lynch had the good fortune of buying stocks during the biggest bull market in the history of the US, so he gets to act pompous and wave his hand in the air and say ?I just buy good companies and let them ride?. Well, lots of ?good companies? he bought in 99/2000 spent the next three years underwater.

How do you know when a runner is running? How often do you buy something, it gains 3, 4, 5, even 10 dollars a share, only to roll over and give it all back? Should one hold onto it as it loses another 7% from your entry as the ?gurus? tell you that the proper play is to cut losses at 7%, and let winners win?

My theory is that you really need two if not three separate piles of investment money. First off if you are lucky enough to have a company sponsored 401K, well then, good for you! But if you don?t you should have an IRA set up. Then, for your personal investing you really need to approach this with two mindsets. One is the day to day, week to week trades we make, but secondly, what about some ?buy and hold? type stuff?

I?m not a buy and hold sort of guy naturally, but the fact is we do put out story stocks that go on to make tremendous gains. Quite often we?ve suggested ?Buying a few shares and putting them away for a year to see what happens?. Many of those very suggestions, have gone on to be three or four ?baggers?. (tripled or quadrupled in price)

For short term swing trades, the thing that keeps us in the game is taking profits, setting some form of stops and moving in and out when the reasons line up. But that said, taking a longer view approach with a small pile of cash, on specific story stocks, can really reward you. No one knows the future, and hindsight is always 20/20. It?s easy to ask ?why didn?t I hold that?? But you really didn?t ?know? it was going to continue going higher. For that type of trade, find a story that?s compelling and take a SMALL position and put it away. If we?ve done our homework, we should see good results.

For a FREE report on HOW TO TRADE FAST, enter your email address at:

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One of the basic laws of physics states that a body in motion will continue in motion in the direction it is going until interrupted by another force.

That basic physics law also applies to stocks and mutual funds. To see this trend it will be very apparent in a weekly or monthly chart rather than a daily chart. The daily chart shows too much noise (random movement).

In the Friday edition of Investor’s Business Daily you will find 37 weekly charts on the back page of Section 2. One of the common occurrences among these issues is the steady upward progression of price, many with an angle of 30 degrees or more. The up movement of price may have been going on for many months. This is the kind of stock you want to own and even add to your position as it continues upward.

Most brokers talk about dollar cost averaging and mean adding to a stock as it goes down. That is stupid. There is only one right way to dollar cost average and that is when it is going up – NEVER down. Averaging down will put you in the poor house.

Today’s stock market (end of 1999) we see the upward momentum of almost all the major stock averages – the DOW Jones Industrials, the S&P500, the Russell 2000 and many more. Some of these indexes are headed for the stratosphere. No, I have no idea how high or how far is up, but remain 100% invested to take advantage of this runaway bull. The market will tell me when to sell.

For anyone holding individual stocks about the only thing you can do is set a trailing stop-loss order so that when the issue turns you will be out with a nice profit. Don’t try to predict the top because you will sell too soon. Let the stock itself tell you when to get out. The amount of the stop will be up to you, but I like about 10% of Friday’s closing price. Never move the stop down.

There are people who buy mutual funds and put them away and never look to see how they are doing. This is a mistake. You are hurting your financial future if you do not regularly review your funds. Monthly is best, never less that quarterly. Momentum applies here too and even more so because many funds have a bias to a particular sector of the market. There are big caps, small caps, regional, international, value, etc., etc., etc. A policy to enhance your income is to see which sectors or groups are doing best and be invested in a fund that is heavily in that sector.

Mutual funds of a certain sector will run up for months at a time, even years, but when that sector becomes weak you should sell immediately and buy a stronger one. If you are with a discount broker there will be no commission to switch and, of course, you only buy no-load funds. Never blindly buy and hold any fund.

As you become aware of the momentum of various sectors and switch to stay with the strongest you can easily double your current return.

Al Thomas’ book, If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It! has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

al@mutualfundstrategy.com; 1-888-345-7870

At some time in your life you have been on a river in a canoe and hopefully you had a paddle. You know about being up the creek without one.

You quickly learned that paddling up stream is much harder than paddling down stream. The lesson of going with the flow can be applied to many aspects of life and especially to the stock market. In the creek it is easy to know which way the current is flowing, but in the market it is much more difficult. At least that is what Wall Street wants you to think.

On the river there are markers and navigations buoys to help you with your passage, but in the money world there are few such true indicators. Actually it is very easy to determine the flow of funds in the market. Standing on the shore are people (brokers) shouting to go to the right and another next to him screaming to go to the left. ?Buy, buy, buy?. Very few of them know which way the current is headed. You have to figure this out yourself.

Fundamental analysis is excellent, but it is very poor to let you know when and where to paddle (put you money). There are many technical tools available, but these can be difficult to master for many people and few brokers know or care to learn them. However, there is one very simple method that does work.

That method is too simple for brokers who want you to think that you need their ?expertise?. They sure don?t want you to find out as you won?t have to pay them commissions any more. The paddle you need to have to propel in the right direction is called the 200-day Moving Average Paddle and you can get it free if you know where to look. You can make this yourself, but if you have a computer just go to the web site www.bigcharts.com and click on their Interactive chart box and they will do all the work for you. You can do this at the library of you don?t have a computer at home.

Using an index such as the SP500 you easily see that when the price (your canoe) is above the 200 line (the current of the river) you should be a buyer of stocks and mutual funds and when the SP500 price is below the 200 line you should be in a money market (even if it only pays 1%). You don?t want to be under water. This is a simple way to see the direction the market is flowing and will keep you from losing money when the market starts down.

No one knows when the current will change. And don?t try to guess. Let the river (market) tell you the direction of flow.

Get yourself one of those good paddles and learn to steer your own canoe.

Al Thomas’ book, If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It! has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

As my regular readers know, I am bearish on Tim Hortons. I think that the market is currently pricing them significantly higher than what I believe to be their intrinsic value. However, the fact that Tim Hortons is being priced so high, makes Wendy?s look very attractive given the 85% stake that they hold in THI.

Given the closing price of Tim Hortons on friday, they have a market cap of about $5.75 billion. This makes Wendy?s stake in the company worth approximately $4.9 billion. Wendy?s market cap currently sits at $7.2 billion. Utilizing our first grade math skills, we will subtract Wendy?s Tim Hortons stake from their current market cap, and arrive at a figure of $2.3 billion. Considering that Wendy?s will be selling off its 85% stake before years end, the market is only valuing Wendy?s core business at our $2.3 billion figure that we derived. Let?s take a look at some ratios using our adjusted valuation of Wendy?s?

* Trailing P/E: 10.2? McDonalds: 17

* Forward P/E estimate: 7.4? McDonalds: 14.6

* Price to Sales: 0.6? McDonalds: 2.1

* Forward Price to Sales: 0.56? McDonalds: 1.95

By all of these metrics, Wendy?s looks very cheap. Earnings growth should pick up nicely, as displayed in their forward P/E estimate. With management exploring various cost cutting and efficiency models. Also, with their proceeds from the Tim Hortons sale, I would expect them to pay down their outstanding debt. They only have $625 million in debt on the books, but at 15% interest (a stab, i dont know what the actual rate they are pating is) this detracts $100 million from earnings. By paying that off, and implementing the efficiency model that management has suggested will be put in place, I believe they could beat current estimates.

Based on relative valuations, shares could double within the near. Throw in the possibility of exceeding expectations, and shares could appreciate even more. The Tim Hortons IPO has created an opportunity to snatch up shares in Wendy?s at a very low valuation. This price discrepency must be corrected, as fundamentals govern valuations in the long run. This is a great value play at these levels, I?m sure Graham would concur.

Originally published in The New Wall Street, a proud member of the Wall Street 2.0 Network.

http://www.thenewwallstreet.com

Every day in any financial publication you will find the Wall Street mavens giving their predictions on many stocks. It was issued here and should go there. It is now undervalued and is worth that much more. Really?

Has anyone gone back to check out these predictions? I haven?t, but I know that as a stock increases in price these same geniuses continue to raise their target prices. How they arrive at these mysterious numbers is beyond me. When their price target is reached do they ever tell you to sell? Not that I can recall. And if it starts down do you ever hear from them again. Not hardly. They are now predicting some other stock.

All this is done in loud voices and big headlines. There are many reasons given as to why XYZ will go to $230. And maybe it will, but when it gets there (if it does) what do I do? Not one of the Maul Street crowd ever tells you to sell.

Price targets are like doing research. Both are worthless as far as making money in the stock market is concerned.

Here is the secret of how to make money in one of those hot-shot stocks. First don?t pay any attention to projected price by any broker. They don?t know. All that talk is window dressing to get you to buy. Remember there is someone willing to sell to you at that price.

And second you should be selling out near the top (not at the top). It is not that difficult to do, but you won?t get this from your broker. Since no one knows where the top is then you have to let the market action tell you when to take your profit. How? With a trailing stop loss order.

Let?s say this hummer took off from $14 and it is now $35. WOW! Should you buy it? If the public relations is new and you want to take a chance then buy it, but have your exit strategy in place. The media blitz for this stock says it will go to $90 and sure enough it does, but it keeps on going. It went right through its target and is now in outer space above $150 and still has rocket fuel to burn. Your trailing stop is now somewhere about $125 to $135. This beauty tops at $255 and plays around there for several weeks when it starts down and hits your stop at about $230. Aren?t you glad you didn?t sell at $90?

The above stock will be nameless here, but I did see this happen and it finally ended down at $2.50. That is why buy and hold should not be in your lexicon if you are an investor.

Price targets are there for the gullible investors. Learn to use this Wall Street trick to your advantage by using a trailing stop.

Copyright 2005

Al Thomas’ best selling book, If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It! has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter to receive his market letter for 3 months at www.mutualfundmagic.com to discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Most stock traders know that momentum trading can be a very profitable activity. You can make big amounts of cash in a short period of time. The problem is, that if you don’t know what stocks to look for and how to approach them and leave everyting to chance, you could end up wasting money instead of making your profits grow.

That’s why the most important aspect of momentum trading is the knowledge FILTER you employ to make your buy and sell decisions. There are many fantastic stock systems and trading strategies outhere, but you need to test them in order to discover which ones help you the most. That’s part of your homework as a stocktrader. Test, test and test again.

Complicated online trading strategies that rely on a boat load of technical analysis indicators can make you slow, and being slow when trading hot momentum stocks can be as dangerous as not knowing what to do in the first place.

The worst thing that can happen to a beginner momentum trader is to get information overload. It’s better to go step by step, and test a simple stock trading strategy that can show you how to focus on concrete ways to make money and pick better hot stock trading opportunities once at a time.

Fortunatly there are great sites on the web today that can show you how to trade in a sharp and effective way. One of those sites is Sharp Trades http://www.sharptrades.com

In the end, momentum trading is all about buying and selling stocks according to your knowledge FILTER. Once you master and follow your proven filter parameters like a clock, you can expect to start making serious amounts of cash on a consistent basis.

Find out how to do it with ease and simplicity at Sharp Trades.

Dan Sheldon is a UK based momentum day trader focusing on US markets since 1986. He helps people become confident and practical momentum traders, showing them how to choose stocks with ease and simplicity every day at http://www.SharpTrades.com