Credit Card ’s Talk

I often hear from people, ?I don?t trade. I invest. I buy a mutual fund and I hold it?. Mr. Investor, did you know you are trading on a regular basis? Are you aware that mutual fund managers are changing their positions by selling certain stocks and buying others?

Mutual funds must report quarterly what stocks they are holding. You can get those reports if you want them. I can?t see where it will do you any good if you are going to blindly hang on to the fund.

A few professional traders will request these breakdowns only if a fund is greatly outperforming the market. They will see what stocks the fund manager has that is making this fund do so well and may buy those stocks. Very clever.

Did you notice that the investor is only looking at the best funds and not at the underperformers or the average performers? Now check your portfolio. Is what you own in the top most profitable funds for the past 3 or 6 months?

I know your broker told you that you have to look at the returns for the past 5 or 10 years. What nonsense. Do you care what the fund has averaged for the past 5 or 10 years or do you want to own one that is making money now?

Fund managers are constantly trading trying to increase the return for their investors. It is a shame most of them have not done a better job. They are always comparing themselves to the S&P500 index. When they do that well they think it is wonderful and they never stop bragging.

The S&P500 index is an average of the market. Mr. Fund Manager gets excited doing an average job. Does your boss like it when you are average? He expects more from you. And you should expect more than average from any investment you make especially if it is recommended by an ?expert? broker or financial planner.

If anyone does an average job he will be employed until the boss finds someone who will do a better job and then Mr. Average can find the door. That should be the same way you examine the stocks and funds you own. The nonperformers should be sold and new ones found that will make money or go to cash. Don?t rely on your broker. His company never wants you to sell.

Investors who buy for ?the long haul? are long term traders. They are not knowledgeable enough to sell when the market is going down as it did in 2000. When there is nothing to invest in then cash is the best position you can have. Having your portfolio in cash in a one or two percent money market account will many times outperform owning stocks or mutual funds.

Everyone who invests is a trader. It is only the time period that is different.

Copyright 2005

Al Thomas’ best selling book, If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It! has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter to receive his market letter for 3 months at www.mutualfundmagic.com to discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

When buying a stock, mutual fund or Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) investors want to know they are receiving a good value for the money. It seems there are many methods of judging value. Most of them are complicated and many are subjective to the writer?s opinion. What is the true value now?

We all remember that as the market fell from its dizzying heights in 2000 that so-called analysts told the investment public not to worry as the correction only made the stocks more valuable. Yeah, and pigs can fly.

Any investor who has been through a market ?correction? (some of which drop 25% to as much as 60% or more) will tell that it is at the top that everything could not be better. Consumer confidence is high. Unemployment is low. Companies are making money. Mergers are going gangbusters. All the talking heads on the radio and TV are cheerleaders for buying just about any stock certificate ever printed. Put you hand in your pocket and hold tightly to your wallet.

The story remains bullish as the market tumbles. The values are wonderful according to Wall Street. If the values are so great then who is selling?

Why does anyone want to know if a stock or fund is a ?good? value? The only reason is to find out if the equity will appreciate in price. The bottom line is will the investor make money if that issue is bought?

There are literally hundreds of methods and formulas to give that answer. Each uses the same statistics and each will come up with a different answer. Some methods will work well for a while and then fail miserably. Mr. Investor won?t know the means test is not working until money has been lost. A search in Wikipedia, the free Internet encyclopedia, will reveal scores of valuation formulas.

Suppose an investor had bought PMC Sierra (symbol PMCS) after valuation analysis at $14 per share. It soared to $254, dropped to $110, then back up to $245 and did a Niagara to $2.50. It now trades below $10.00. There is no valuation method that could have kept an investor on the right side of this stock. The Buy N Holder would be lucky to be even. Let?s not forget all those sleepless nights as the stock rampaged lower every day.

Understand what valuation is. It is like beauty. It is in the mind of the beholder. There is no single valuation method that is accepted by the investment community. The investor needs to know one thing and one thing only. If I buy it will it go up? If it does then the valuation at that time was ?good?. Valuations change and when they change for a particular equity and that equity loses price it is time to say goodbye. Sell.

True value for a stock, fund, bond, house, collectible, anything is the price someone will pay for it at that moment. That is true valuation. All else is speculation.

Al Thomas’ book, If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It! has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2006

We place consider buys on stocks for several reasons. If the chip sector is moving higher and we see a chip maker approaching a near term resistance, that gets our blood moving! Why? Because if it gets through that resistance, it can squeeze a bit and really break out. But when the market is nervous, and whippy, too many times a stock crosses above the resistance, they get cold feet and down it comes. At that point you have to make a decision. do you hold it under where you paid or do you bail out? It’s not an easy choice.

Many are the times you will bail out and the darned thing will reverse back up and blast higher. Then again there are the times it will simply keep falling. Is there any way to truly know the difference? No, unfortunately, we don’t care what you have read about systems, volumes, technical indicators, voodoo, or aliens, the fact is no one knows the future. So, naturally the best plan is to sell out when a breakout comes back to where you bought it. Jump out with little or no loss and live to fight again.

Over the past few weeks we have entered and then had to bail out of so many stocks we have lost count. But this is the important part and you have to remember it: We are up big on the win/lose column. Yes it takes work, yes it’s a royal pain in the butt, but the fact is that active management saves the day. Look at DISH back in late October of 2001. Pull up the chart. See that messy line right around the $28 level? Well if you draw a line across 28 from the high of the day on October 28th (at 27.99) you see 28 is like a fairly staunch resistance. So, we had a consider buy on it if it got back over 28, give or take a few cents.

Sure enough it opened at 28.01, stumbled a bit and pushed up to 28.53. Great right? It sure was, we were in it at 28.10. but then sure enough it reversed and down it came. When it got to 28.12, we had to make a decision. Do we hold it under where we pain or do we sell it flat? We held for about 10 cents and dumped it. Swell right? A 10 cent loss, after being up 40 cents. But, here is the really important part folks, it closed the day at 27.53. Now, if it came back up, then we looked stupid. If it fell more we were heroes.

Well let me tell you something. We will generally take the flat or a 10 cent loss rather than holding under where we bought it hoping’ it comes back. Sure we could have sold it at 28.50, or 28.40 or 28.30, but we didn’t. Maybe we should have, the thing is quite often we have to settle for the dimes, but it’s not what we are after.

Unless the day is totally in the toilet, we try and buy into the stocks we put on the consider buy list. More times than not they work out for us, but not without a bit of work. Yes we have often had to do the DISH thing, watching a small gain disappear and then bail out flat. But then we catch the right one. That’s what we are after! Unfortunately, when the market is whippy, unless you can seriously daytrade, you have to be prepared to be nimble enough to bail out when the stock you bought is falling back to where you bought it.

There are times when we do hang onto the stock even though it has violated our entry price intra day. Why do we do it? Well maybe we still had really high hopes and thought it would rebound. Maybe we felt the only reason it pulled back was because the overall market got scared over a news item or such. Well, we went back through hundreds of trades over the years and did the math. On the ones we held onto even though they failed our original entry price, 61% went on to become winning plays. That isn’t bad at all. Would we encourage it? Not at all, we encourage you to bail. But that said, we only put out plays we feel have a real shot at moving higher, and the numbers back that up. Even though they failed the initial buy in price, 61% still became winners down the road.

Why didn’t we hold onto DISH? The day was poor at best, there were big earnings after hours that could have put the market in a bad mood if they were poor and we saw them picking away at GE, IBM etc. When the leaders are getting plucked, there is always the chance of a big sell off. We bailed flat and moved on. When you are looking at a stock that has pulled back to where you entered it, please take all things into consideration.

How is the overall market acting? Is there a bad headline floating around? Is the mid East erupting? Has gold or oil shot higher? Did someone just warn? When you have the answers to these questions, then you can make a better judgment about whether you want to hold onto a falling stock, or bail out. More times than not its still best to bail, but occasionally you may decide the stock is falling and its not the stocks fault.

Suppose you see a high volume breakout and everything looks great. The resistance line was 50 and you get in at 50.15 and soon its at 50.60. Then it starts fading. You notice the DOW was up 80 and now its up 40, 30 20. Something happened. Maybe a program trade, maybe a profits warning, maybe a fight in the mid East. In a situation like that, especially if the breakout came with volume, we’d tend to hang onto it even if it failed 50.15, but we wouldn’t let it fail 50, the original breakout line. Why? Because the stock didn’t do anything wrong, some outside influence drove the market lower and took our stock with it. We would hold it under our buy in price, but not the breakout price. If the short sellers see it couldn’t hold the breakout, they might step up their shorting and drive it lower.

No, we’d probably bail at 49.95 or so if we could. So, as you see, there is no cut and dry answer, and the situation will determine your best course of events. We hope that helps you make good decisions in the future!

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Money management starts with protecting your capital, realizing profits and cutting losses. As I have stated in the past, without cash, you can’t invest. Cash is king and learning to manage your money is the most important aspect to investing in stocks. The game is won by lowering your risk by properly turning the numbers in your favor. Cutting losses is the best insurance to keeping your cash.

Emotions fuel the decisions of many investors; leading the pack is hope, fear and greed. In order to control these emotions, proper money management skills must be developed through a defined set of rules. How do you know if an investment is working and moving in the right direction? If it shows a profit, you are correct, if it shows a loss, something is wrong and it may be time to protect your capital.

Most investors develop the emotion of hope after a stock has declined from the initial purchase price. They hope that it will rebound and make promises to themselves that they will sell at breakeven. If and when the stock rebounds, they break the promise and become greedy and decide to hold on for a profit instead of selling. Typically, the stock will start to decline and the investor will start to accumulate losses. Investors are full of pride and will not admit that their judgment is wrong, so instead, they decide to hold on and accumulate additional losses.

When a stock is purchased and starts to decline, especially on heavy volume, it is time to admit that you may be wrong and sell before the loss is too steep. If the stock rebounds after you sell, you can always re-enter your position. Cutting losses is the best insurance an investor can have in their portfolio. By developing rules and eliminating emotion, investors can start selecting high quality stocks and buying them at their proper purchase points. This will lower your risk and help prevent you from using insurance. In my previous post, I explained how to develop a watch list of high quality stocks using fundamental and technical analysis.

About the Author

Chris Perruna

http://www.marketstockwatch.com

Chris is the founder and CEO of MarketStockWatch.com, an internet community that teaches you how to invest your money with solid rules. We don?t stop at just showing you our daily and weekly screens, we teach you how to make you own screens through education. Through our philosophy, you will be able to create your own methods and styles to become successful.

As I said in Part I everyone in the insane asylum looks normal, but at least the doctors are sane. Unfortunately, in the insane asylum known as the stock market all the doctors (brokers) are also insane.

The doctors in the insane asylum went to medical school to learn how to treat the patients so the could get well. On Wall Street you go to the doctor (broker) who is supposed to help you become financially well, maybe wealthy. Almost none of these Wall Street experts ever learned their profession. They have all been taught the three great prescriptions that make no sense at all: Do Your Research, Buy and Hold and Dollar Cost Averaging. This is what the brokerage houses teach.

As I said previously research is worthless, as it will not tell you if a stock is going to go up. Buy and Hold is taught the wrong way. It is OK to Buy and Hold as long as the stock is going up, but not when it goes down. No broker is taught how to protect a customer’s money.

When I was a floor trader I learned in a hurry not to hold on to something that was losing money. The very simple prescription for this is called a Stop Loss Order. Brokers hate them and will discourage you from entering them. Why? Because it means he will have to watch your account because if a stop order is not properly and timely executed he must pay it out of his pocket.

Brokerage houses do not teach brokers how to use this simple method to protect capital. The house does not want to become known that it will sell a company’s stock when it turns weak. The brokerage company makes more in good will from the poor performing company than they do in commissions from you because if they ever encourage selling it means they will not get a chance to handle an Initial Public Offering (IPO) for that company. Suppose they did have a stop protection policy for customers and they then had an IPO that came out at $30 per share, but instead of going up it went down. The customers would not lose more than $3 or $4 per share because of their protective stops, but the house would then be stuck with all the unsold stock. It is OK for you to have this money-losing dog, but they sure don’t want it in their inventory. You can see how logical this is, but you won’t hear it from a broker. Stop orders are not insane.

The insane conventional wisdom that both brokers and customers have been taught cannot remain once it is exposed to truth.

You must take the initiative with the stocks you own to protect yourself from loss of capital. If your broker argues with you there is one solution - fire him and find a good broker who will protect your money. Just because he has learned an insane system doesn’t mean you have to be nuts too.

Al Thomas’ book, If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It! has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

al@mutualfundstrategy.com; 1-888-345-7870

Greed - The Ugly Duckling of Investing

Ah, yes, that evil five letter word can get one into a some hot water when it comes to investing in the stock market now can?t it? I?m sure we?ve all been there, at one time or another, where the evil has overcome and we think; hold on for a just a little bit longer and I can make even more money than I could if I sold right now. Greed can be defined as an excessive desire to acquire or possess more than what one needs or deserves, especially with respect to material wealth. Yes, that sounds just about right, certainly relates to stock market investing now doesn?t it?

Keeping Greed out of Your Investing

We all have our own investment strategies, I?m not here to tell you what works best and what sucks wind, but one thing I do know, if your investing strategy involves greed you will probably ?lose? more often than you ?win?. It?s certainly not always an easy thing, to keep greed out of your investments, especially when you?re in a stock that?s on a nice uphill ride. Any prudent investment approach should contain some form of an exit strategy, simply put how you plan on getting out of (selling) the stock you hold. This would be one way to avoid greed, have a set price at which you intend on selling the stock, walk away with the money in your pocket and move on to the next investment. Not always as easy as it sounds though is it? Prior to buying into a stock you should have some sort of idea at what price you would like to sell it, hopefully you don?t have to hold it for 10 years in order for it to reach that price. Sometimes you buy into it and if you timed it just right, you start to see the price go up sooner rather than later. When you start counting the dollars you are making seems to be when the exit strategy flies out the window and greed comes creeping in. I mean, gee, who knew when you bought it that the stock was going to rise so high, so fast, why sell now when you could make so much more money? It would be downright silly to get out now when you could clearly make much more cash if you held on to it. Somewhere deep within your being, there should be something rejecting this argument, and reminding you of your exit strategy and how you?ve gone past the price you told yourself you were going to be out of that stock and onto the next one.

Take your profits when you can

Discipline is a big factor when investing in the stock market. By employing some self-discipline you can keep your head about your initial investment strategy and keep greed from banging down the door. If the stock you invested in has made a nice move, and you have made the money you hoped to make off of it, then get out of it while the getting is good. If it seems as though the price is going to continue to increase, then why not take out your original investment plus a small profit (if possible) and leave the rest. At least you wouldn?t be losing any money by taking your profits when they are presented to you. You could have the best of both worlds if you chose to employ this strategy, you made your money (or at least didn?t lose any) and if the stock goes to the moon you?ll be laughing all the way to the bank, or at least to your next investment. The other option, let greed take the wheel, you could make way more money if you don?t take any profits and let the whole thing ride up the hill. Sure, you could stand to make a lot more off of your investments and I?m sure many people do, but the problem with this approach, where is the top? And when it reaches the top is it going to stay there for a while or come crashing down at record speed? What if it reaches this peak while you?re on vacation, or sick and can?t get to your computer to make the all important trade? It?s amazing how fast all those profits can disappear and you are no further ahead then when you first invested in the stock.

The main point to all this? Greed has a home and a mother, just like the ugly duckling, just perhaps not in stock market investing. Obviously, investment strategies vary from person to person, and if you find one that works, and greed is a big factor, well, kudos to you, personally, I?ve never gained off my greediness, it?s always hurt me more than helped me. Anyways, now back to my point. No one can predict with 100% certainty (no one I?ve ever heard of anyways) what is going to happen with a particular stock or the stock market in general. If you are able to keep your head about your investments and keep greed out, you could stand to make some tidy profits so that you can keep investing, employing your investment strategy and hopefully making some decent money at the whole thing.

*Any information contained in this article should not be construed as investment advice, simply the thoughts and opinions of the author.*

Jennifer Mycock & Branden Moskwa of Tradeopolis.com

Tradeopolis.com, your stock market trading and stock investing resource, with access to articles on Stock market trading and stock investing. Penny stocks to mutual fund investing, tips and secrets and all the latest hot press releases.

Tradeopolis.com, Financial Metropolis, Thriving Community

Sometimes you just have to take a deep breadth. And though I sometimes avoid information for fear of it influencing me adversely [journalists who know NOTHING talking up a situation, today I read the FT first thing.

Yesterday’s drops could be the start of a big fall. But i’m gambling it’s not. After the fear of today has subsided, I expect a rally. But I also expect a lot of volatility in the coming weeks / months [until something significant causes balance and so I expect to make short bursts of quick profits.

From watching the charts, I can see that many investors have the same idea. There’s a lot of buying going on amongst the selling.

But like I said yesterday, things are looking cheap from a certain perspective. So even if I buy today and we’re not at the bottom of the trough, I am pretty confident that I am buying at a low enough price that will eaily be surpassed shortly.

Unless I’ve got it all wrong. Which puts me in the same club as many other big names. Nobody knows anything.

I have what I call a market-stall approach. The stocks for me are just like bananas. What are they worth today? How much can I sell them for later? How many do I buy? How much working capital am I risking? How perishable are they?

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When it comes to mutual funds, there is a lot more to success than just finding a good one. Sad investment stories like the following are all too common. I hope my sharing it with you will help you avoid making the same devastating financial mistake one of my former clients made.

This story begins during the height of the investment madness in 2000, just prior to the bear market. I had been managing an IRA account for Bob for around six years, with a better than average record of success. So I was surprised when Bob sheepishly called in July, 2000 to let me know he was transferring his IRA account, which had done particularly well during our latest Buy cycle going into the year 2000.

However, his tax preparer, a long time personal friend of Bob’s wife?s, was now also offering investment services, having recently received his Registered Representative?s license.

Fast forward to the end of September. It had become increasingly clear to me that the Bull market had run its course. So, in accordance with the Sell signal from our trend tracking methodology, we sold all of our mutual fund positions on October 13, 2000 and went 100% into money market. (See my article ?How we eluded the Bear in 2000? at http://www.successful-investment.com/articles12.htm). From our safe haven we watched the market crash and burn, causing most other investors to sustain double digit losses eventually reaching as high as 50 - 60% of their assets.

In 2002 Bob unexpectedly stopped by my office. As it turned out, things had not gone well at all with his IRA investments. As most advisors would have done, his tax preparer/advisor had quickly moved all of Bob?s assets into a variety of ?load funds.?

Of course, being newly licensed he was clueless (as were many licensed advisors) as to market behavior or analysis of any kind. The end result was that Bob?s portfolio lost in excess of 50% over the next 2 years. (Not to gloat, but my clients’ losses in the same period were non-existent.)

Unfortunately, the degree of loss Bob sustained was experienced by many investors who did not follow a disciplined and methodical approach.

What I find particularly distasteful is that Bob’s tax preparer misused his position of trust. He made financial decisions that he was not qualified to make, though his license implied that he did know enough to make them. So now we know what a piece of paper is worth.

This is no different than letting a newly graduated medical student with a fresh MD behind his name perform heart surgery. Or, hiring a new MBA grad to Chief Financial Officer of a Fortune 500 company. Yet the financial services industry allows someone to get a license (after a fairly short course) and to immediately start making incredibly important and far reaching financial decisions for anyone he or she can sell their service to.

This is a worrisome trend in this industry. A CPA friend confirmed that he has been approached many times by firms wanting him to offer investment services.

Why? It?s easy money! Accountants and tax professionals have a great business base. They are in a unique position of trust, because of the information their clients disclose to them. Whether they are employed by a company or they maintain an individual practice, there is probably no other person (other than your spouse) who knows as many intimate details of your financial life as your accountant/tax preparer.

To abuse this trust for personal gain?no matter how noble the motive may appear?is a total conflict of interest and a huge betrayal.

The bear market of 2000 has shown that investing must be a disciplined endeavor. Even most professionals have failed to recognize this. What busy accountant, in the middle of tax season, can put the necessary time and attention to a volatile investment market that may require action at a moment’s notice?

As for Bob, he?s still with his accountant, and in the same investments that brought his portfolio down. He?s hoping for a miracle recovery. As of this writing, the stock market is engaged in something of an upswing and Bob, I’m sure, is getting his hopes up that he will recover some of his losses. However, I shudder to think that this rally may come to an end and the bear market resumes. Where will Bob be then?

At 58 years old Bob is still playing Russian roulette with his retirement. He’s apparently unable to make a decision to move to someone who has the ability to make sense of market trends and the discipline to follow the signals they communicate. This is a decision that will have a profound affect on his financial future?and will determine whether his story has a happy or sad ending.

About The Author

Ulli Niemann is an investment advisor and has been writing about objective, methodical approaches to investing for over 10 years. He eluded the bear market of 2000 and has helped countless of people make better investment decisions. To find out more about his approach and his FREE Newsletter, please visit: www.successful-investment.com; ulli@successful-investment.com

Fading the gap. Earnings runs. Moving average cross over’s. Support and resistance. I could go on an on about all the ?tools? a good ?trader? uses to make a trade. In one form or another we have employed each and every one of them, and for the most part, if done right, they work. But, there is one issue that will always make you shake your head in wonder. What?s that? ?Why didn?t I hold??

One time we watched EBAY get to 104 dollars a share. Well, we went long EBAY on 8/11/04 at 76.30. We held it for a pretty long time, and sold a portion on 9/2/04, at 89.53. We had picked up $13 a share, and yes indeed we were proud of ourselves. Yet, it went over 104. Suddenly selling it at 89.53, looked pretty silly didn?t it? Indeed.

One could easily ask ?why on earth did you sell it?? One could easily answer, ?did you ?know? it was going to go to 100?? Do you see the point? There are indeed investments that you are going to make from time to time, when you will take your profit, feel like a king, and then feel like a fool because the stock keeps going higher. But, we have a short memory in this country. This is the same type of thinking that saw tens of thousands of investors get crushed in 200 ? 2003. They all ?knew? their stocks were going higher. They held onto them. They are still licking their wounds.

There is NO answer to this problem folks. Cocky talking head fund managers wrote all sorts of catchy books about ?let your runners run, and cut your losers?. Peter Lynch had the good fortune of buying stocks during the biggest bull market in the history of the US, so he gets to act pompous and wave his hand in the air and say ?I just buy good companies and let them ride?. Well, lots of ?good companies? he bought in 99/2000 spent the next three years underwater.

How do you know when a runner is running? How often do you buy something, it gains 3, 4, 5, even 10 dollars a share, only to roll over and give it all back? Should one hold onto it as it loses another 7% from your entry as the ?gurus? tell you that the proper play is to cut losses at 7%, and let winners win?

My theory is that you really need two if not three separate piles of investment money. First off if you are lucky enough to have a company sponsored 401K, well then, good for you! But if you don?t you should have an IRA set up. Then, for your personal investing you really need to approach this with two mindsets. One is the day to day, week to week trades we make, but secondly, what about some ?buy and hold? type stuff?

I?m not a buy and hold sort of guy naturally, but the fact is we do put out story stocks that go on to make tremendous gains. Quite often we?ve suggested ?Buying a few shares and putting them away for a year to see what happens?. Many of those very suggestions, have gone on to be three or four ?baggers?. (tripled or quadrupled in price)

For short term swing trades, the thing that keeps us in the game is taking profits, setting some form of stops and moving in and out when the reasons line up. But that said, taking a longer view approach with a small pile of cash, on specific story stocks, can really reward you. No one knows the future, and hindsight is always 20/20. It?s easy to ask ?why didn?t I hold that?? But you really didn?t ?know? it was going to continue going higher. For that type of trade, find a story that?s compelling and take a SMALL position and put it away. If we?ve done our homework, we should see good results.

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One of the basic laws of physics states that a body in motion will continue in motion in the direction it is going until interrupted by another force.

That basic physics law also applies to stocks and mutual funds. To see this trend it will be very apparent in a weekly or monthly chart rather than a daily chart. The daily chart shows too much noise (random movement).

In the Friday edition of Investor’s Business Daily you will find 37 weekly charts on the back page of Section 2. One of the common occurrences among these issues is the steady upward progression of price, many with an angle of 30 degrees or more. The up movement of price may have been going on for many months. This is the kind of stock you want to own and even add to your position as it continues upward.

Most brokers talk about dollar cost averaging and mean adding to a stock as it goes down. That is stupid. There is only one right way to dollar cost average and that is when it is going up - NEVER down. Averaging down will put you in the poor house.

Today’s stock market (end of 1999) we see the upward momentum of almost all the major stock averages - the DOW Jones Industrials, the S&P500, the Russell 2000 and many more. Some of these indexes are headed for the stratosphere. No, I have no idea how high or how far is up, but remain 100% invested to take advantage of this runaway bull. The market will tell me when to sell.

For anyone holding individual stocks about the only thing you can do is set a trailing stop-loss order so that when the issue turns you will be out with a nice profit. Don’t try to predict the top because you will sell too soon. Let the stock itself tell you when to get out. The amount of the stop will be up to you, but I like about 10% of Friday’s closing price. Never move the stop down.

There are people who buy mutual funds and put them away and never look to see how they are doing. This is a mistake. You are hurting your financial future if you do not regularly review your funds. Monthly is best, never less that quarterly. Momentum applies here too and even more so because many funds have a bias to a particular sector of the market. There are big caps, small caps, regional, international, value, etc., etc., etc. A policy to enhance your income is to see which sectors or groups are doing best and be invested in a fund that is heavily in that sector.

Mutual funds of a certain sector will run up for months at a time, even years, but when that sector becomes weak you should sell immediately and buy a stronger one. If you are with a discount broker there will be no commission to switch and, of course, you only buy no-load funds. Never blindly buy and hold any fund.

As you become aware of the momentum of various sectors and switch to stay with the strongest you can easily double your current return.

Al Thomas’ book, If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It! has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

al@mutualfundstrategy.com; 1-888-345-7870