Credit Card ’s Talk

When buying a stock, mutual fund or Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) investors want to know they are receiving a good value for the money. It seems there are many methods of judging value. Most of them are complicated and many are subjective to the writer?s opinion. What is the true value now?

We all remember that as the market fell from its dizzying heights in 2000 that so-called analysts told the investment public not to worry as the correction only made the stocks more valuable. Yeah, and pigs can fly.

Any investor who has been through a market ?correction? (some of which drop 25% to as much as 60% or more) will tell that it is at the top that everything could not be better. Consumer confidence is high. Unemployment is low. Companies are making money. Mergers are going gangbusters. All the talking heads on the radio and TV are cheerleaders for buying just about any stock certificate ever printed. Put you hand in your pocket and hold tightly to your wallet.

The story remains bullish as the market tumbles. The values are wonderful according to Wall Street. If the values are so great then who is selling?

Why does anyone want to know if a stock or fund is a ?good? value? The only reason is to find out if the equity will appreciate in price. The bottom line is will the investor make money if that issue is bought?

There are literally hundreds of methods and formulas to give that answer. Each uses the same statistics and each will come up with a different answer. Some methods will work well for a while and then fail miserably. Mr. Investor won?t know the means test is not working until money has been lost. A search in Wikipedia, the free Internet encyclopedia, will reveal scores of valuation formulas.

Suppose an investor had bought PMC Sierra (symbol PMCS) after valuation analysis at $14 per share. It soared to $254, dropped to $110, then back up to $245 and did a Niagara to $2.50. It now trades below $10.00. There is no valuation method that could have kept an investor on the right side of this stock. The Buy N Holder would be lucky to be even. Let?s not forget all those sleepless nights as the stock rampaged lower every day.

Understand what valuation is. It is like beauty. It is in the mind of the beholder. There is no single valuation method that is accepted by the investment community. The investor needs to know one thing and one thing only. If I buy it will it go up? If it does then the valuation at that time was ?good?. Valuations change and when they change for a particular equity and that equity loses price it is time to say goodbye. Sell.

True value for a stock, fund, bond, house, collectible, anything is the price someone will pay for it at that moment. That is true valuation. All else is speculation.

Al Thomas’ book, If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It! has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2006

The fight continues to rage among traders who use technical indicators and those who prefer fundamental information to establish new positions and to exit current positions.

The fundamentalist believe in knowing all the facts about a company such as price earnings ratios, sales growth, product margins, management capabilities, cost of production, cash flow, etc., etc. while the technicians could care less about the latter and want to see sector price trends and rank, the Relative Strength Index, MACD (moving average convergence divergence), stochastics, trend lines, chart patterns and many more esoterically evolved indicators.

Which method is the best?

There is no Holy Grail of trading and what critics of either method forget that it is the trader who adds the final nuance that results in profit or loss. The more years a professional investor has been working his plan the more successful he usually becomes. The unsuccessful ones have long since gone broke and are no longer in the game.

It is somewhat difficult for me to give great credence to fundamentalists as I am a technician and have a very long profitable track record to prove it; however, I do sometimes look at some of fundamentals. It seems that the longer term trader can do well with a fundamental approach because the timing to buy or sell has a lag time. He does not buy the bottom nor sell the top, but who does?

The technical trader will ignore the informational approach with the use of charts and other indicators. Short term traders must be technicians, especially day traders, as there are no fundamentals upon which they can assess their buys and sells.

Technical trading is based on the psychology of the mass of traders that ride upon the hidden values of the changing fundamentals. Charts and other indicators tell the of the long term health of a company, country or commodity as it is shown in the price action. The fundamentalist looks for the reason for a change to buy or sell whereas the technician tries to find the change in the price action to initiate buys and sells.

No matter what a fundamental trader?s position he must be very patient. He may have a position on for years. During that same period there will be waves of highs and lows during which he remains constant in his position. The technician may trade the same equity several times buying the low of the wave and selling the high (hopefully). In commodities it is astute trading, but when it is done in stocks and funds it is called timing.

A combination of technical and fundamental methods can give the best results. For the average guy occasional trader I can only caution him to be very careful. Very few intermittent traders ever make money.

A successful trading approach requires commitment. It is a business the same as owning a shoe store or trucking company. You must give it your all.

Like any business you have to work at it.

Al Thomas’ book, If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It! has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

Do you have a financial planner? Does one of your friends have a financial planner? Maybe you take your advice from your broker. As I have said countless times before a broker will make you broker. And a financial planner won?t do any better. I know. You thought they would.

Let?s look at the real reason investors choose to take advice from these so called ?experts?. Once they get you into their office or sitting with you at the dining room table or kitchen table you are doomed. Mr. F.P. has come prepared with beautiful slick color brochures and will have a presentation that will utterly confuse, bedazzle and befuddle. You will sit there and be afraid to ask a question because you know it is so dumb. You can?t say ?no? or you will be admitting how dumb you are. And he knows that.

It is not that he is a liar. (I hope.) It is that all financial planners and brokers are taught the Wall Street method of ?making money?. Unfortunately it doesn?t work.

The basic things that have been pounded into their heads are false. Let?s look at the big three: Do Research, Dollar Cost Average and Buy and Hold. There are others, but these you will hear from every broker and financial planner because that is what the big brokerage companies and mutual fund families want. They want your money and they want to keep it even when the stocks or funds you own go down. In fact, buy some more.

Research is like blowing in the wind. You will be inundated with green sheets, blue sheets, red sheets, slick full color glossies, videos, etc., etc. Think about this. If you can obtain this information then so can everyone else. Everything that is known about a particular stock is reflected in the last price. Morningstar will sell you a beautiful package about a company, but it is worthless. What you really want to know is will it go up after I buy it?

Of course, if it goes down you will be encouraged to buy more to average out your price so that when it heads up again you will make a fortune. Yes, and pigs can fly.

If it does go down your advisor may say to hold on as the market always comes back. He doesn?t tell you it may take 20 years or that the company might go out of business. Buy and Hold is the greatest myth of Wall Street. No one ever tells you to sell. Have you been told you don?t have a loss until you take it? Please!

You got that advisor because you have not admitted to your self that you cannot pull the trigger. When you have a stock or fund that is falling you don?t want to sell. You have to take charge of your money. Just you.

When you look back at the performance of most financial planners from 2000 to 2003 you know you can do a better job. Always ask to see what they did then. If they lost money you don?t want them. Don?t let them compare their performance to the S&P500. That?s smoke and mirrors.

You can do better. Just do it.

Al Thomas’ book, If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It! has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005