Supplementing Your Income With Stocks And Shares: 14 June 2006

Sometimes you just have to take a deep breadth. And though I sometimes avoid information for fear of it influencing me adversely [journalists who know NOTHING talking up a situation, today I read the FT first thing.

Yesterday’s drops could be the start of a big fall. But i’m gambling it’s not. After the fear of today has subsided, I expect a rally. But I also expect a lot of volatility in the coming weeks / months [until something significant causes balance and so I expect to make short bursts of quick profits.

From watching the charts, I can see that many investors have the same idea. There’s a lot of buying going on amongst the selling.

But like I said yesterday, things are looking cheap from a certain perspective. So even if I buy today and we’re not at the bottom of the trough, I am pretty confident that I am buying at a low enough price that will eaily be surpassed shortly.

Unless I’ve got it all wrong. Which puts me in the same club as many other big names. Nobody knows anything.

I have what I call a market-stall approach. The stocks for me are just like bananas. What are they worth today? How much can I sell them for later? How many do I buy? How much working capital am I risking? How perishable are they?

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13 August

Stock And Share Tips: 150506

In a bull market, it is not difficult to generate wealth from investing in stocks and shares. The general trend is up and you can benefit from this.

Trading now is easy - open an online account and the total cost of the buy and sell is small if not negligible.

It is worth noting this: the low cost of the buy and sell means that it is pretty possible to supplement your income by a few hundred or thousand dollars a month. Of course we know that people make millions in the markets, but they also have to risk millions. Take Warren Buffet, his profit from the dollar decline may be making him billions, but it cost him a billion to make the bet.

I’m pretty risk averse and I like to calculate my earnings in hard cash at the end of each month. So it is not unusual for me to cash out everything after only a month and start again, even if the stocks are doing well and I lose out a little in the transaction charges. This approach has many other important benefits, including:

a) it keeps me unemotional. The stock (they call it a share in England) is just an entity that I trade and each month i’ll risk my money on that or any stock that may give me the best return.

b) I don’t fall into the trap of leaving my money somewhere where I’ll forget about it and hope that one day it’ll be worth much more.

c) I get used to the process and always have my eyes on the market. I get to know how strong or weak my stocks are at any point in time. In other Words, I’m keeping an eye on my money.

I’ve started a newsletter to share my experiences: www.wanttosaysomething.com

15th May 2006

Shares crashed today. Apparently due to a predicted rise in interest rates, but also the weakening dollar and the unknowns of the Iran situation. This just goes to show the benefit of diversifying, but also the fact that no one knows anything.

Normally the strategy is to attempt to make your capital appreciate quickly, which inevitable means investing in higher risk stocks. But on days like this, it is the blue chips, [which grow incredibly slowly that retain most value.

Still, days like today are a good time to buy. Problem is knowing where the bottom is. Do I risk buying today when they could fall again tomorrow. Best strategy is to wait and see what happens tomorrow. If I see red, I’ll wait. If I see green…well you know what that means.

Learn more?

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You are free to reproduce this article as long as no changes are made, the author’s name is retained and the URL links remain active.

10 August

Analyzing Growth Stocks: An Important Focus For Any Investor

Analyzing growth stocks is an important focus for any investor. This is especially important, since stocks are an irreplaceable part of any good investment plan, and since unbiased stock research is hard to find. Still, we need to look at the big picture once in a while. Since so much has changed lately, this may be a good time to ?take stock?. Many have reevaluated their investment strategies. The problem is that many of these reevaluations are moving people away from their goals. As the market has dropped, rather than moving toward buying at the cheaper prices, we?ve seen people move away from stocks, a strategy which has little long-term benefit.

THE PICTURE

It?s all about planning for the future. The first step is to picture the future you have in mind. Most of us already have part of the picture in our sights. We picture ourselves in a home, with food, heat, clothing — the necessities. Beyond the basics, some of us may picture ourselves raising a family and possibly supporting our kids? education or business ventures or helping them buy their first home. Others may imagine supporting a church or charity, or accomplishing some great humanitarian goal. Most imagine some type of vacation at least once in a lifetime, or a personal goal that we?ve always wanted to achieve. Regardless of specifics, trying to get as clear a picture of your intentions as possible is an important first step. Once we know where we?re going, we can begin mapping our path

THE PLAN

Those who fail to plan, have already planned to fail. It is nearly impossible to reach a goal if there?s no strategy in place. Of course, there are a variety of personal decisions and trade-offs involved in any plan, and only a portion of these involve finances. Let?s focus here on the financial dimension of the plan, because the financial decisions are often the ones that prevent us from reaching our goals. Financial decisions are never easy, and the issues quite often reach to the core of our being. They involve our deepest values, our choices of what is most important in our lives. If other people are involved in our life, we need to balance our values with those of our families.

Creating the financial plan involves three steps: goal-setting, measurement and implementation.

Goal-setting requires us to determine both the specific achievements we desire and the timing of these achievements. For example, it is not enough to know that we want to own a 1000 square foot home on the beach in Hawaii. We must also identify any time-frames we have in mind. Measurement requires us to evaluate the cost of our goals, and determine our pacing. We must figure out what it will take, then, based upon our timing needs, pace our plan by calculating what the per-year savings must be and the growth rate our saving must achieve to accomplish that goal. Pacing for our goals is the most technical portion of the planning process, and often where people fall down on the job. Inflation in the economy is a complicating factor here too. If we don?t take inflation into account, a long-term plan is often doomed. Imagine someone who saved up for 30 years to buy a house, ignoring inflation. She?d have saved up $25,000, and wouldn?t be able to afford anything. Her cost calculation must recognize that money loses value over time. Making these calculations can seem intimidating for the inexperienced. We have charts and graphs that we use to assist our clients in making these judgments, but for those who aren?t nearby, the American Savings Education Council has some excellent resources on the web that are fairly simple to use.

Once we?ve gone to the trouble of learning precisely what we need to achieve our goals, its time to begin translating these specifics into an action plan. This is part of the plan implementation. The implementation stage requires us to determine the best way to reach our (now very specific) goals. The factors we will need to look at include income levels, savings decisions, and investment strategies.

Alas, this is all part of the next installment in this column. Stay tuned.

To send comments or to learn more about Scott Pearson’s Investment Management Services, visit http://www.valueview.net

Scott Pearson is an investment advisor, writer, editor, instructor, and business leader. As President and Chief Investment Officer of Value View Financial Corp., he offers investment management services to a wide variety of clients. His own newsletter, Investor’s Value View, is distributed worldwide and provides general money tips and investment advice to readers both internationally, and in the U.S.

7 August

Navigating Thru A Trading Fiasco

Two weeks ago the Canadian government announced that it was imposing a new tax on income trusts. This announcement shocked the market and sent the Toronto Stock Exchange S&P/TSX composite index spiraling down 2.4% for the day. To put that in US terms that was the equivalent to a 300 point drop in the DOW. Billions of dollars were lost by this announcement.

Unfortunately I had recently taken a position in Enerplus Resources (ERF) the granddaddy of income trusts. It was the first Canadian oil and gas trust formed in 1986. Over the past five years, while the DOW was returning peanuts, its return was over 200%. It has a 9% yield and pays a monthly dividend like clock work. The plan was for it to become the anchor stock in an income oriented portfolio that I am building. As I have mentioned numerous times, to be successful in this market you need to be either a trader or a dollar-cost averager. Most will be far more successful as a dollar-cost averager. I have written many articles on the topic on this site. I make use both styles, but primarily I am a trader.

On the day of the announcement, ERF dropped 14%. That might have been the largest one day drop that I have experienced in a stock. If it is not the largest - it is definitely in the top two or three. Here are the comments from one mutual fund manager, ?There is a knee-jerk reaction out there. You got a lot of mutual funds that might be experiencing cash-ins because the media headlines make the masses want to liquidate at whatever the cost.? Based on his comments, I would presume that he was advising his clients not to sell. I have been caught in downdrafts such as this before. So, I was a seller.

Seven days afer the infamous announcement, the calm mutual fund manager?s clients are down an additional 10.5%. As a trader, I don?t rationalize over this or that - I react. Perseverance of capital is my number one priority. Although my intent was to become a long term investor growing old collecting dividends, STUFF happened and my plans were changed. Many will say, that if it is such a great stock it will come back. My answer is maybe. Not everyone sold seven days ago and have since suffered an additional 10.5% loss. So, now every time ERF advances a few points it will be faced with enormous selling pressure. Those trapped will want out. ERF could be dead money for awhile. Additionally, there is an opportunity cost of being stuck in a stock after such a calamity. Your money could be put to use in another stock as opposed to languishing in ERF waiting for it to come back. So, the next day I put some of the money to use into another to stock Hud Bay Minerals (HBM).

Refer to HBM.TO’s chart of my site.

Over the past seven days HBM has gone up 1.9% versus -10.5% for ERF. Making this a double win. I have recovered some of the loss and avoided an additional loss. Many would have listened to the broker and held on. Although my original intent was to be a long term investor in ERF, I realize that preservation of capital trumps intent. This was not my first rodeo, so I sold and moved on.

Refer to ERF’sChart on my site

About the Author

Michael Dawson recently said goodbye to a 20 year career in Engineering, Marketing and Sales to focus on living his dream of financial independence. He has since founded The Time and Money Group as vehicle to encourage others to do the same. The company’s mantra is Why trade time for money … when you can have both. Sign up for their free weekly newsletter, where he and others discuss the different paths to financial freedom and offer insights for your successful navigation.

http://www.thetimeandmoneygroup.com

Make sure to read one of Dawson’s most popular articles: Saying Good-Bye to the Time for Money Swap

4 August

The Commodities Bull Market Is Back

It was just a few short months ago many were saying the bubble had burst in commodities. First of all, I never bought into the bubble talk. How can there be a bubble in commodities - when not one of your friends can name 5 gold stocks? Back in the internet bubble days, taxi cab drivers could rattle off the names of internet companies without skipping a beat. Before there can be a bubble the masses must participate.

The commodity bull market is being driven by simple supply and demand dynamics. Just think about the amount of copper that will be consumed as China industrializes. Mass industrialization takes many years. Everyone knows that Rome wasn?t built in a day and China will be no different.

What the bubble promoters forget is that no bull market goes straight up. The days of buy and hold - I call it buy and forget are over. There is no certainty that a stock will be higher in 6 or 12 months; although that is what Wall Street teaches. I believe to profit in today?s stock market you have two choices:

  • Either dollar cost average (DCA) into a clear cut long term trend like the industrialization of emerging countries. Refer to my site for many articles on written on DCA.
  • Learn how to read charts.
  • Looking at BHP?s chart, the ideal purchase price over the last month would have been around $35. If all the stars lined up you could have purchased it at $35, but more than likely you would have been petrified that $30 was right around the corner. Using charts, there is a strong likelihood that you could have picked it up at $38. Not quite $35, but in retrospect not a bad price. I think that you would be pleased with a 13% return in 3 weeks. Commodity stocks are simply too volatile to simply buy and forget. There will be many more drubbing such as the past 5 months before this bull market is over. An effective strategy is needed to navigate through these rough waters. Dollar cost averaging and charting are two that I believe work. BTW, BHP is most diversified mining company in the world. It has 37,000 people spread across 25 countries around the world. Globally it ranks 2nd in copper production, 2nd in thermal coal, 3rd in nickel, 4th in uranium, 6th in aluminum and 1st in silver. It also mines titanium, iron, coking coal and molybdenum. It even produces oil and gas. If you could only buy one mining stock - BHP would be an excellent choice.

    About the Author

    Michael Dawson recently said goodbye to a 20 year career in Engineering, Marketing and Sales to focus on living his dream of financial independence. He has since founded The Time and Money Group as vehicle to encourage others to do the same. The company’s mantra is Why trade time for money … when you can have both. Sign up for their free weekly newsletter, where he and others discuss the different paths to financial freedom and offer insights for your successful navigation.

    http://www.thetimeandmoneygroup.com

    Make sure to read one of Dawson’s most popular articles: Saying Good-Bye to the Time for Money Swap

    3 August